Evaluating the extent of rough sleeping

Gathering evidence to produce a more robust estimate: a statistical model

From autumn 2010 all local authorities must submit an annual figure indicating the numbers of people sleeping rough in their area. They can do this by means of an estimate or a count.

Homeless Link’s role is to support local authorities to estimate levels of rough sleeping in their locality and, where appropriate, to provide verification for their count. Specifically Homeless Link will:
  • Provide support and guidance to local authorities to produce the most accurate estimate
  • Provide verifiers to local authorities wishing to count
  • Provide support and training to those verifiers in understanding the count methodology
  • Review rough sleeping counts and estimates to ensure their integrity
  • Engage in local projects based on the finding of the counts or estimates, for example further pieces of work to audit or assess the needs of rough sleepers.

The decision to count or estimate

Local authorities can decide whether to count or estimate in order to determine their single figure. They should use the method that they think will reflect the number of those rough sleeping in their area most accurately. Local authorities should appoint an Evaluation Lead to oversee the whole process of determining and submitting the single figure.
 
In order to decide whether to count or estimate, local authorities should undertake the intelligence gathering and estimating exercise outlined in the toolkit. As one of the outcomes of this process may be to decide to carry out a count, it needs to happen early enough to allow for the planning of a count (taking 6 weeks).
 
If any of the following factors emerge from consultation with local partners, the local authority may decide to carry out a count:
  • A significant change in the number, population or location of rough sleepers
  • High numbers of rough sleepers in the area
  • An increase in numbers of rough sleepers
  • Difficulties forming an estimate on the basis of the information available
  • Significant disagreement about the numbers between agencies
If a local authority chooses not to conduct a formal rough sleeper count, it should provide its estimate of rough sleeping numbers to DCLG to help inform the national picture on rough sleeping.
 
The estimate should record as a single figure the number of people thought to be rough sleeping in the local authority area on a typical night between 01 October and 30 November. The figure should be as robust as possible and using the guidance provided will help to get the most accurate estimate.
 
The count is a snapshot of the number of rough sleepers in the local authority area on a particular night and it will not therefore record everyone in the area with a history of rough sleeping.
 

Submitting the single figure count or estimate

Whether there is a count or estimate, this should take place between the 01 October and 30 November. Local authorities should use the single figure to complete the DCLG rough sleeping statistics form (available here) and email completed forms to roughsleepingstatistics@communities.gsi.gov.uk. This should be submitted by Friday 16 December.
 
Rough sleeping figures (either a count or an estimate) should allow local authorities to track progress and to consider what services are necessary and the effectiveness of measures in place.
 

Toolkit for evaluating the extent of rough sleeping

Homeless Link has produced a toolkit to help local authorities, in partnership with other local agencies, to evaluate the extent of rough sleeping. It contains guidance on carrying out an estimate and a count.